Hitting It Big, But Not Right This Second
Drat this 7 year recession. I was hiding out in grad school for the worst of it, then toiling away my days in high tech during the ++ temporary spike from '05-'07 (which resulted in everyone buying houses with subprime variable rate mortgages, oh jeez). Until recently, I have remained unscathed.
No more. Today's weak employment report has really hit home with me, since I have not signed on any dotted lines regarding my own employment (though will be doing so shortly). The report, though more dismal than expected, actually gives an very bright and rosy employment picure, compared to the true reality of the situation. See, due to a few technicalities with the data used in its construction, the unemployment rate is likely much higher. Ditto the oh jeez.
The true unemployment rate is higher than today's reported 4.8%. As you may know, the unemployment rate is based on people who are reporting themselves unemployed and looking for work via Unemployment Insurance programs through their local Dept of Labor or equivalent (and the data is collaborated by JOLTS, Challenger, etc). EXAMPLE OF WHERE CALCULATIONS FALL SHORT: Though between jobs since January when my high tech contract ended, I am not counted as unemployed because I was paid as a 1099 in 2007. Even though the 1099 was forced and without option for W2, I am considered self-employed and not counted. Technically, I'm considered an inactive participant in the labor market. I am not the only one in this predicament. And there are other ways the calculations do not fully capture the unemployment rate: In today's WSJ (you may have to log in), Naroff Economic Advisors speculates "With all the news about a recession, people may be giving up looking for work." Plain and simple: waiting it out, going back to school, living off their girlfriend/boyfriend/trustfund, etc.
There are no massive layoffs right now. Rather, hiring just isn't keeping pace with labor market growth. I have experienced this, too, first hand, in my many weekly interviews (and this as an "inactive participant" - LOVE IT!!!). I'll hold off on the details of this routine; lets just say that the "Hurry up and Wait" strategy is alive and well in the HR dept of the Fortune 500 tech companies. I guess it's just proof that nobody really knows what to expect with this, or how to respond. My response will be to eat more ramen. At 4/$1.00, this strategy is sure to increase my consumer confidence.
No more. Today's weak employment report has really hit home with me, since I have not signed on any dotted lines regarding my own employment (though will be doing so shortly). The report, though more dismal than expected, actually gives an very bright and rosy employment picure, compared to the true reality of the situation. See, due to a few technicalities with the data used in its construction, the unemployment rate is likely much higher. Ditto the oh jeez.The true unemployment rate is higher than today's reported 4.8%. As you may know, the unemployment rate is based on people who are reporting themselves unemployed and looking for work via Unemployment Insurance programs through their local Dept of Labor or equivalent (and the data is collaborated by JOLTS, Challenger, etc). EXAMPLE OF WHERE CALCULATIONS FALL SHORT: Though between jobs since January when my high tech contract ended, I am not counted as unemployed because I was paid as a 1099 in 2007. Even though the 1099 was forced and without option for W2, I am considered self-employed and not counted. Technically, I'm considered an inactive participant in the labor market. I am not the only one in this predicament. And there are other ways the calculations do not fully capture the unemployment rate: In today's WSJ (you may have to log in), Naroff Economic Advisors speculates "With all the news about a recession, people may be giving up looking for work." Plain and simple: waiting it out, going back to school, living off their girlfriend/boyfriend/trustfund, etc.
There are no massive layoffs right now. Rather, hiring just isn't keeping pace with labor market growth. I have experienced this, too, first hand, in my many weekly interviews (and this as an "inactive participant" - LOVE IT!!!). I'll hold off on the details of this routine; lets just say that the "Hurry up and Wait" strategy is alive and well in the HR dept of the Fortune 500 tech companies. I guess it's just proof that nobody really knows what to expect with this, or how to respond. My response will be to eat more ramen. At 4/$1.00, this strategy is sure to increase my consumer confidence.